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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.2 | 142.2 | 67% | 58–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 143.7 | 77% | 63–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 143.5 | 69% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 155.1 | 55% | 49–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 146.2 | 61% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.1 | 144.6 | 23% | 82–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 154.8 | 80% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 154.1 | 78% | 67–106 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 146.6 | 48% | 82–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 149.3 | 79% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 144.9 | 70% | 55–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 143.4 | 34% | 63–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 147.1 | 60% | 72–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 161.3 | 65% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 139.2 | 64% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 139.2 | 81% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.