Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | INST -333 MINN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | INST -8.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -9.2 (+2.8) | 156.4 (-16.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.5 (+3.5) | 154.8 (-14.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -9.2 (+2.8) | 155.8 (-15.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.7 (+2.3) | 156.0 (-16.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 7.7 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#26) | 1.21 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#34) | 1.54 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#39) | 0.505 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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