Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | LR -133 FAIR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -1.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.9 (-5.1) | 145.6 (+11.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.7 (-6.3) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.8 (-5.2) | 149.3 (+7.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.3 (-5.7) | 146.9 (+10.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#189) | -0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#225) | -0.00 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#221) | -0.13 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#233) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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