Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -167 UNCO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +2 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -0.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-60.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -1.0 (+1.0) | 150.9 (-50.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -1.3 (+0.7) | 155.1 (-55.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -1.1 (+0.9) | 153.0 (-53.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -1.4 (+0.6) | 155.0 (-55.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#183) | -2.3 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#171) | -0.02 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#180) | -0.18 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#142) | 0.502 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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