Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +240 MONT -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -7.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -6.7 (+3.7) | 141.7 (+19.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -7.1 (+4.1) | 144.6 (+16.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -6.4 (+3.4) | 145.6 (+15.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -7.0 (+4.0) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#275) | 0.9 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#295) | 0.47 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#286) | 0.31 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#328) | 0.542 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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