Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | USF -175 VCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -2.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.1 (-6.1) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.4 (-7.4) | 139.2 (-4.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -3.2 (-8.2) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.2 (-7.2) | 139.9 (-4.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | VCU 78 – 66 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#89) | 7.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#59) | 1.36 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#73) | 1.65 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#38) | 0.565 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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