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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama A&M
@
Austin Peay
|
+9.6 | 146.0 | 84% | 81–71 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Princeton
|
+5.0 | 139.6 | 72% | 84–77 | ✗ |
App State
@
Wake Forest
|
+7.7 | 146.9 | 74% | 76–87 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Cincinnati
|
+7.8 | 141.7 | 76% | 72–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Villanova
|
+5.0 | 129.3 | 70% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Boise State
|
-2.0 | 142.4 | 43% | 60–53 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Mississippi State
|
-0.9 | 130.8 | 44% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
BYU
|
+6.6 | 140.0 | 73% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Creighton
|
+9.4 | 139.5 | 83% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Arizona
|
+17.2 | 158.8 | 88% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
North Carolina
|
+18.3 | 131.9 | 88% | 62–90 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Illinois
|
+11.9 | 146.7 | 83% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
South Carolina
|
+0.2 | 137.4 | 53% | 87–73 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Dayton
|
-0.3 | 139.9 | 48% | 60–63 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Texas
|
-0.4 | 142.1 | 48% | 44–56 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Kentucky
|
+8.6 | 161.5 | 81% | 80–76 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Iowa State
|
+14.2 | 135.0 | 87% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Gonzaga
|
+5.3 | 146.2 | 69% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.