Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -700 AAMU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -11.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -8.9 (-18.9) | 143.4 (+8.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -9.6 (-19.6) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -9.6 (-19.6) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -9.6 (-19.6) | 143.1 (+8.9) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#227) | -12.0 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#198) | -1.51 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#207) | -2.02 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#155) | 0.437 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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