But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
(10) Boise State Broncos
53 60
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Colorado Buffaloes
UD Arena (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread COLO -3.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money BOIS +145 / COLO -188
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual COLO +7 113 Lost
Massey COLO -1.4 (-5.6)
Massey Totals 146.2 (-33.2)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 48%
Efficiency Plus ML COLO -0.4 (-6.6) 139.4 (-26.4) 44%
Baseline Tuned ML COLO -2.0 (-5.0) 142.4 (-29.4) 43%
Baseline ML COLO -1.6 (-5.4) 141.4 (-28.4) 36%
Baseline Plus ML COLO -1.6 (-5.4) 141.4 (-28.4) 40%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2022 BOIS 6855 COLO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS COLO
Overall 22-11 26-11
Conference 13-5 13-7
Home 13-3 16-1
Away 7-3 4-7
Neutral 2-5 6-3
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.6 79.3
Avg Pts Against 67.6 71.7
Massey 12.0 (#43) 13.4 (#25)
Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#34) 1.93 (#39)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.30 (#44) 2.39 (#39)
RPI 0.584 (#37) 0.583 (#39)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS COLO
FG% 44.7% 49.3%
3PT% 34.8% 39.4%
REB / G 36.2 37.6
OREB / G 11.0 10.1
AST / TO 1.08 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 55.3%
TOV% 16.5% 18.2%
ORB% 32.5% 32.2%
FT Rate 26.7% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 15.2%
DRB% 76.9% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.9% 19.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.