← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.2 | 137.6 | 60% | 73–63 | ✗ |
South Florida
@
UCF
|
+5.7 | 140.9 | 67% | 83–77 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Virginia Tech
|
+5.7 | 140.1 | 69% | 58–74 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Butler
|
+6.1 | 148.4 | 71% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Iowa
|
+5.7 | 153.6 | 69% | 82–91 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Virginia
|
-3.2 | 123.5 | 39% | 67–42 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Utah
|
+7.8 | 149.7 | 74% | 75–84 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Montana State
|
+2.6 | 136.5 | 60% | 88–81 | ✗ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Bowling Green
|
+0.4 | 145.5 | 49% | 77–75 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Tarleton State
|
+7.1 | 141.1 | 77% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Seton Hall
|
+4.4 | 143.3 | 69% | 72–75 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Indiana State
|
+8.0 | 152.3 | 80% | 92–101 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Bradley
|
+6.3 | 136.3 | 72% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.