I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · March 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TAR -6.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money TAR -275 / ACU +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +27 145 Won
Massey TAR -7.9 (+19.1)
Massey Totals 143.6 (+1.4)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML TAR -7.2 (+19.8) 142.6 (+2.4) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -7.1 (+19.9) 141.1 (+3.9) 77%
Baseline ML TAR -6.9 (+20.1) 142.5 (+2.5) 77%
Baseline Plus ML TAR -7.3 (+19.7) 142.5 (+2.5) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 ACU 8478 TAR
Feb 17, 2026 TAR 6562 ACU
Feb 14, 2026 ACU 7359 TAR
Jan 9, 2026 ACU 8480 TAR
Feb 28, 2025 TAR 6752 ACU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR ACU
Overall 25-10 16-18
Conference 16-4 10-10
Home 13-4 8-6
Away 10-5 5-10
Neutral 2-1 3-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.6 70.7
Avg Pts Against 70.2 73.7
Massey 1.5 (#143) -3.2 (#224)
Bradley-Terry 1.06 (#91) -0.30 (#209)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.19 (#103) -0.31 (#193)
RPI 0.552 (#75) 0.470 (#245)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR ACU
FG% 44.8% 42.5%
3PT% 33.3% 34.2%
REB / G 32.9 32.6
OREB / G 10.3 9.6
AST / TO 1.16 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 46.8%
TOV% 16.7% 17.4%
ORB% 30.3% 26.1%
FT Rate 23.4% 28.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 20.8%
DRB% 66.9% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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