Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -115 PFW -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -1.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.2 (-1.8) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -0.4 (-2.4) | 145.5 (+6.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.2 (-2.2) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.3 (-2.3) | 146.3 (+5.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#232) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#186) | -0.14 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#196) | -0.13 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#203) | 0.481 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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