I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Hinkle Fieldhouse · March 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BUT -4.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money BUT -213 / MINN +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total BUT win
Actual MINN +1 145 Lost
Massey BUT -5.1 (-6.1)
Massey Totals 151.5 (-6.5)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 71%
Efficiency Plus ML BUT -5.4 (-6.4) 147.9 (-2.9) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML BUT -6.1 (-7.1) 148.4 (-3.4) 71%
Baseline ML BUT -7.0 (-8.0) 149.3 (-4.3) 70%
Baseline Plus ML BUT -6.8 (-7.8) 149.3 (-4.3) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BUT MINN
Overall 18-15 19-15
Conference 9-11 9-11
Home 12-6 16-4
Away 4-7 3-9
Neutral 2-2 0-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.5 75.0
Avg Pts Against 73.8 71.9
Massey 9.4 (#59) 7.5 (#76)
Bradley-Terry 1.34 (#80) 1.03 (#93)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.66 (#77) 1.45 (#88)
RPI 0.524 (#125) 0.497 (#181)
Shooting & Four Factors BUT MINN
FG% 45.2% 47.2%
3PT% 34.8% 35.8%
REB / G 35.0 35.0
OREB / G 9.1 10.1
AST / TO 1.36 1.45
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 54.3%
TOV% 15.2% 17.6%
ORB% 26.2% 30.7%
FT Rate 21.3% 24.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 16.0%
DRB% 71.0% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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