They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Carver-Hawkeye Arena · March 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread IOWA -5.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money IOWA -250 / KSU +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total IOWA win
Actual IOWA +9 173 Won
Massey IOWA -4.9 (+4.1)
Massey Totals 158.6 (+14.4)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 68%
Efficiency Plus ML IOWA -4.1 (+4.9) 157.5 (+15.5) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML IOWA -5.7 (+3.3) 153.6 (+19.4) 69%
Baseline ML IOWA -6.4 (+2.6) 156.2 (+16.8) 67%
Baseline Plus ML IOWA -5.4 (+3.6) 155.0 (+18.0) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IOWA KSU
Overall 19-15 19-15
Conference 10-10 8-10
Home 14-4 14-3
Away 4-9 2-9
Neutral 1-2 3-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 83.1 72.2
Avg Pts Against 79.4 71.1
Massey 10.8 (#48) 9.1 (#65)
Bradley-Terry 1.49 (#70) 1.54 (#65)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.96 (#58) 1.88 (#66)
RPI 0.541 (#97) 0.539 (#99)
Shooting & Four Factors IOWA KSU
FG% 47.5% 43.5%
3PT% 34.7% 32.0%
REB / G 35.4 37.2
OREB / G 9.8 11.0
AST / TO 1.87 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 50.0%
TOV% 13.1% 21.1%
ORB% 27.7% 32.4%
FT Rate 25.7% 28.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.1% 46.5%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 16.0%
DRB% 69.5% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 22.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.