Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -213 GRAM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -4.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+33.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -2.7 (-9.7) | 136.4 (+32.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.6 (-9.6) | 136.5 (+32.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.3 (-9.3) | 136.7 (+32.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.4 (-9.4) | 136.2 (+32.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#222) | -7.6 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#213) | -0.33 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#201) | -0.56 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#219) | 0.520 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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