Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VT -275 RICH +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VT -5.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -7.4 (+8.6) | 140.0 (-8.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.7 (+10.3) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.1 (+9.9) | 141.4 (-9.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.9 (+10.1) | 141.5 (-9.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#57) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#71) | 1.64 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#63) | 1.75 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#71) | 0.563 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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