You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Jadwin Gymnasium · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PRIN -3.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money PRIN -188 / UNLV +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total PRIN win
Actual UNLV +7 161 Lost
Massey PRIN -4.1 (-11.1)
Massey Totals 141.9 (+19.1)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML PRIN -4.6 (-11.6) 139.0 (+22.0) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML PRIN -5.0 (-12.0) 139.6 (+21.4) 72%
Baseline ML PRIN -5.2 (-12.2) 141.0 (+20.0) 68%
Baseline Plus ML PRIN -5.6 (-12.6) 140.3 (+20.7) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PRIN UNLV
Overall 24-5 21-13
Conference 12-2 12-6
Home 12-1 12-5
Away 11-3 8-4
Neutral 1-1 1-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.3 71.9
Avg Pts Against 68.1 69.8
Massey 8.4 (#70) 7.5 (#77)
Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#35) 1.47 (#70)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.29 (#45) 1.68 (#75)
RPI 0.601 (#18) 0.565 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors PRIN UNLV
FG% 45.7% 45.3%
3PT% 35.3% 33.2%
REB / G 32.2 32.7
OREB / G 7.8 9.9
AST / TO 1.76 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 51.1%
TOV% 12.0% 16.3%
ORB% 24.2% 29.9%
FT Rate 23.5% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 18.2%
DRB% 75.2% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 23.9%

Game Analysis

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