Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PRIN -188 UNLV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -4.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -4.6 (-11.6) | 139.0 (+22.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -5.0 (-12.0) | 139.6 (+21.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -5.2 (-12.2) | 141.0 (+20.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -5.6 (-12.6) | 140.3 (+20.7) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 7.5 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#35) | 1.47 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#45) | 1.68 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#18) | 0.565 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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