Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -350 SF +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -7.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.9 (-5.9) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -7.8 (-6.8) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -7.9 (-6.9) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -7.1 (-6.1) | 143.5 (+1.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#29) | 8.6 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#68) | 1.22 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#58) | 1.46 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#78) | 0.529 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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