The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Fifth Third Arena · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CIN -7.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money CIN -350 / SF +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total CIN win
Actual CIN +1 145 Won
Massey CIN -7.6 (-6.6)
Massey Totals 140.3 (+4.7)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML CIN -6.9 (-5.9) 142.1 (+2.9) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML CIN -7.8 (-6.8) 141.7 (+3.3) 76%
Baseline ML CIN -7.9 (-6.9) 143.2 (+1.8) 78%
Baseline Plus ML CIN -7.1 (-6.1) 143.5 (+1.5) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CIN SF
Overall 22-15 23-11
Conference 7-11 11-5
Home 16-5 14-2
Away 4-8 6-6
Neutral 2-2 3-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.7 76.2
Avg Pts Against 68.2 66.8
Massey 13.0 (#29) 8.6 (#68)
Bradley-Terry 1.48 (#68) 1.22 (#84)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.99 (#58) 1.46 (#87)
RPI 0.549 (#78) 0.529 (#114)
Shooting & Four Factors CIN SF
FG% 44.2% 48.2%
3PT% 32.4% 34.9%
REB / G 39.5 33.7
OREB / G 13.6 9.3
AST / TO 1.22 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 55.3%
TOV% 17.4% 16.9%
ORB% 37.2% 29.2%
FT Rate 19.3% 18.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 19.9%
DRB% 74.4% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 26.8%

Game Analysis

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