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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–7 on winners spread MAE 8.6 18 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Duke @ Virginia Tech	+0.3	145.6	52%	77–67	✗
Boston University @ Holy Cross	-3.4	131.1	34%	63–65	✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	-0.4	134.3	49%	69–66	✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State	+11.4	143.9	87%	73–83	✓
Howard @ Coppin State	-6.4	133.7	25%	81–66	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+0.1	139.9	45%	63–53	✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M	-4.3	142.9	28%	86–88	✗
New Orleans @ Lamar	+10.7	157.1	87%	73–98	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-2.3	137.0	40%	69–54	✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese	+18.6	146.0	91%	65–89	✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian	-1.4	136.8	43%	80–58	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling	+5.7	143.2	73%	86–70	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern	+16.9	135.3	91%	54–78	✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern	+0.4	132.9	55%	55–56	✓
Houston @ Texas	-7.7	131.8	20%	76–72	✓
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M	+7.5	145.3	78%	76–87	✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman	+1.7	147.7	60%	70–67	✗
South Carolina @ Tennessee	+11.2	138.3	86%	63–59	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.