Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -909 MORG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -15.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -11.6 (-1.6) | 141.1 (+14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.4 (-1.4) | 143.9 (+12.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -12.4 (-2.4) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -12.6 (-2.6) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#209) | -14.7 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#184) | -2.53 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#189) | -2.95 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#208) | 0.396 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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