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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 10.1 36 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Central Michigan @ UIC	—	—	—	72–74	—
Radford @ Norfolk State	+6.4	142.7	76%	54–57	✓
Nicholls @ Santa Clara	-0.1	141.4	45%	57–73	✗
William & Mary @ Old Dominion	—	—	—	78–86	—
Texas Southern @ Oklahoma State	+10.8	134.8	82%	65–85	✓
Tulsa @ TCU	—	—	—	65–70	—
Louisiana @ Baylor	—	—	—	82–112	—
Virginia Tech @ Villanova	+3.1	142.0	66%	81–73	✗
Notre Dame @ Michigan State	—	—	—	70–80	—
Montana @ USC	—	—	—	62–76	—
Utah Valley @ BYU	—	—	—	60–82	—
Eastern Washington @ Washington State	—	—	—	68–71	—
UMass Lowell @ Ohio State	+14.3	150.2	86%	64–74	✓
Richmond @ Kentucky	+9.1	140.4	75%	76–64	✗
South Carolina @ Tulsa	—	—	—	69–58	—
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Iowa State	—	—	—	63–80	—
Florida A&M @ Georgia	—	—	—	75–85	—
Lipscomb @ Tulane	+6.1	138.9	68%	66–68	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Maryland	+12.2	139.1	84%	61–79	✓
Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech	+9.8	146.2	82%	77–91	✓
Boise State @ Sam Houston	-7.0	137.4	27%	86–55	✓
Seattle U @ Air Force	-4.2	140.3	33%	63–45	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M	—	—	—	53–82	—
Alabama A&M @ Samford	—	—	—	78–76	—
Liberty @ TCU	+1.8	136.5	59%	52–56	✓
Houston Christian @ Arizona State	+8.8	142.2	78%	77–100	✓
Hofstra @ Rutgers	—	—	—	56–70	—
Arkansas State @ Morehead State	-1.4	135.4	42%	61–69	✗
North Dakota State @ Creighton	—	—	—	58–69	—
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama	+2.5	134.9	56%	77–73	✗
Texas Tech @ Houston	-1.0	139.7	47%	53–64	✗
San Francisco @ Rhode Island	-0.3	142.7	48%	71–84	✗
Washington @ Baylor	—	—	—	52–86	—
Oakland @ Michigan	+18.8	149.6	90%	71–81	✓
North Florida @ Miami	—	—	—	59–77	—
Prairie View A&M @ Louisville	+13.2	134.6	84%	64–86	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.