Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | NORF -155 RAD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -8.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -5.6 (-2.6) | 141.4 (-30.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -6.4 (-3.4) | 142.7 (-31.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#26) | -0.4 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#15) | -0.46 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#18) | -0.68 (#153) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 51.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.9% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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