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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
2–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.6
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Florida
@
Virginia Tech
|
+8.7 | 144.6 | 80% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Radford
@
James Madison
|
-0.9 | 137.8 | 45% | 59–67 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Davidson
|
-5.2 | 144.9 | 30% | 78–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Providence
|
+1.7 | 145.6 | 57% | 79–58 | ✗ |
Little Rock
@
Duquesne
|
— | — | — | 76–66 | — |
Cal State Northridge
@
Seattle U
|
+10.7 | 137.8 | 82% | 76–65 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
App State
|
+15.8 | 154.9 | 88% | 78–76 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Boston College
|
+0.5 | 142.2 | 50% | 97–93 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.