Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SCU -175 NICH +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -0.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -0.1 (+16.1) | 141.4 (-11.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -2.3 (+18.3) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -1.1 (+17.1) | 141.1 (-11.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -0.6 (+16.6) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 4-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 4-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#173) | 8.0 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#63) | 1.61 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#81) | 2.35 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#42) | 0.542 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 43.2% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 30.7% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 51.7% |
Game Analysis
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