Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | SHSU +800 BOIS -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +31 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -12.6 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -7.5 (-23.5) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -8.0 (-23.0) | 137.2 (+3.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -7.0 (-24.0) | 137.4 (+3.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-9 | 19-9 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#184) | 6.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#171) | -0.42 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#173) | -0.58 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#54) | 0.500 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 6.2% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 58.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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