Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | LOU -10000 PV +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -20.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -13.2 (+8.8) | 134.6 (+15.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -16.7 (+5.3) | 133.1 (+16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -13.5 (+8.5) | 134.7 (+15.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 13-0 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-0 |
| Away | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#76) | -3.8 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#66) | -0.57 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#105) | -1.00 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#99) | 0.312 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 28.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.2% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 56.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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