Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | HOU +135 TTU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +11 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -1.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -1.0 (+12.0) | 139.7 (-22.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -0.3 (+10.7) | 141.3 (-24.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -1.0 (+12.0) | 137.0 (-20.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TTU 90 – 86 HOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | HOU 69 – 65 TTU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | HOU 69 – 61 TTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TTU 82 – 81 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOU 82 – 59 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 9-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 63.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#21) | 10.4 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#62) | 0.45 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#61) | 0.63 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#54) | 0.438 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 43.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 37.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 81.0% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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