Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -35.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +23 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -18.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -11.3 (+11.7) | 145.5 (+31.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -8.8 (+14.2) | 142.2 (+34.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#103) | -3.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#72) | -0.46 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#63) | -0.72 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#27) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 34.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 38.0% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 9.8% |
Game Analysis
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