Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | AF -145 SEA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +18 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | SEA -6.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -3.5 (-14.5) | 137.9 (-29.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -4.2 (-13.8) | 140.3 (-32.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-5 |
| Home | 3-8 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#90) | 8.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#39) | 1.81 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#42) | 2.57 (#15) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.0% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 2.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 10.9% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 85.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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