← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-7.5 | 141.9 | 17% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+1.7 | 133.2 | 60% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
SE Louisiana
|
+6.7 | 139.5 | 74% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+1.5 | 146.4 | 60% | 82–75 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
UL Monroe
|
-11.4 | 132.2 | 16% | 66–77 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Jackson State
|
+7.0 | 147.4 | 73% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Ohio State
|
+6.9 | 156.0 | 79% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-3.7 | 142.2 | 31% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Lamar
|
+2.5 | 131.2 | 63% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
New Orleans
|
-1.3 | 149.5 | 41% | 74–58 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Duke
|
+20.1 | 135.1 | 90% | 64–74 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+6.6 | 126.3 | 69% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Alabama State
|
+3.7 | 146.8 | 59% | 80–69 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-17.0 | 129.1 | 11% | 63–42 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
-2.7 | 152.7 | 39% | 82–98 | ✗ |
Towson
@
Northeastern
|
+1.7 | 136.5 | 59% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
USC
|
-1.6 | 142.3 | 46% | 82–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Arizona
|
+1.2 | 153.7 | 62% | 75–86 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Georgetown
|
-4.6 | 134.9 | 34% | 66–41 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.