Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–8 on winners spread MAE 10.0 20 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kent State @ Illinois State +6.4 152.6 73% 58–79 ✓
George Washington @ Utah Valley +2.9 153.7 61% 79–78 ✗
Dayton @ Bradley -0.5 145.5 37% 80–66 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico +11.6 155.2 81% 83–107 ✓
Miami (OH) @ SMU +7.0 156.4 66% 89–79 ✗
Murray State @ Nevada +9.1 148.3 77% 75–89 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Colorado State +6.9 140.4 69% 69–64 ✗
UIC @ California +8.4 145.6 79% 73–91 ✓
TCU @ Ohio State +2.9 147.3 59% 66–64 ✗
Troy @ Nebraska +15.5 138.5 89% 47–76 ✓
South Florida @ Louisville +8.1 159.5 75% 79–83 ✓
High Point @ Wisconsin +10.3 159.9 76% 83–82 ✗
Siena @ Duke +28.7 131.8 90% 65–71 ✓
McNeese @ Vanderbilt +9.6 150.8 76% 68–78 ✓
North Dakota State @ Michigan State +15.0 143.2 88% 67–92 ✓
Hawai'i @ Arkansas +14.5 159.4 86% 78–97 ✓
VCU @ North Carolina +1.3 144.9 50% 82–78 ✗
Howard @ Michigan +29.6 149.5 90% 80–101 ✓
Texas A&M @ Saint Mary's +5.1 150.9 68% 63–50 ✗
Texas @ BYU +1.5 157.8 57% 79–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.