Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -192 KENT +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -8.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -5.2 (+15.8) | 152.0 (-15.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -6.6 (+14.4) | 149.0 (-12.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -7.2 (+13.8) | 150.3 (-13.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -6.4 (+14.6) | 152.6 (-15.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 82.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#91) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#120) | 1.00 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#119) | 1.05 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#106) | 0.564 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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