He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
The Pit · March 19, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -11.5 Home covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money UNM -800 / SHSU +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +24 190 Won
Massey UNM -10.5 (+13.5)
Massey Totals 159.1 (+30.9)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 89%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -12.6 (+11.4) 154.2 (+35.8) 83%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -10.5 (+13.5) 152.1 (+37.9) 83%
Baseline ML UNM -11.2 (+12.8) 154.0 (+36.0) 81%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -11.6 (+12.4) 155.2 (+34.8) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM SHSU
Overall 26-11 22-12
Conference 13-7 13-7
Home 17-3 13-1
Away 7-5 6-10
Neutral 2-3 3-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 80.8 80.0
Avg Pts Against 71.6 76.9
Massey 11.5 (#49) 4.1 (#106)
Bradley-Terry 1.76 (#60) 0.62 (#110)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.32 (#56) 0.81 (#111)
RPI 0.564 (#57) 0.545 (#77)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM SHSU
FG% 46.1% 45.7%
3PT% 36.1% 37.3%
REB / G 36.1 38.5
OREB / G 10.6 13.1
AST / TO 1.35 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.6% 52.4%
TOV% 15.3% 16.7%
ORB% 30.3% 36.0%
FT Rate 26.3% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 16.4%
DRB% 72.4% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.7% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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