Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -800 SHSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +24 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -10.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -12.6 (+11.4) | 154.2 (+35.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -10.5 (+13.5) | 152.1 (+37.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -11.2 (+12.8) | 154.0 (+36.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -11.6 (+12.4) | 155.2 (+34.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#49) | 4.1 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#60) | 0.62 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#56) | 0.81 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#57) | 0.545 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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