You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(11) SMU Mustangs
79 89
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) Miami (OH) RedHawks
UD Arena (Neutral) · March 19, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money SMU -310 / M-OH +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMU win
Actual M-OH +10 168 Lost
Massey SMU -7.8 (-17.8)
Massey Totals 168.0 (+0.0)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 35%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -6.9 (-16.9) 156.3 (+11.7) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -6.9 (-16.9) 157.1 (+10.9) 72%
Baseline ML SMU -5.6 (-15.6) 155.5 (+12.5) 74%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -7.0 (-17.0) 156.4 (+11.6) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMU M-OH
Overall 20-14 32-2
Conference 8-10 18-0
Home 15-3 16-0
Away 3-8 14-0
Neutral 2-3 2-2
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 84.1 86.3
Avg Pts Against 77.9 76.5
Massey 14.5 (#35) 6.7 (#87)
Bradley-Terry 1.95 (#47) 2.96 (#23)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.64 (#46) 3.27 (#33)
RPI 0.570 (#47) 0.588 (#33)
Shooting & Four Factors SMU M-OH
FG% 49.0% 50.8%
3PT% 37.4% 37.5%
REB / G 37.7 34.3
OREB / G 12.3 8.1
AST / TO 1.50 1.45
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 59.2%
TOV% 15.9% 14.5%
ORB% 35.4% 25.3%
FT Rate 22.7% 30.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 17.4%
DRB% 68.4% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.0% 22.8%

Game Analysis

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