Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -310 M-OH +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +10 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -7.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.9 (-16.9) | 156.3 (+11.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.9 (-16.9) | 157.1 (+10.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.6 (-15.6) | 155.5 (+12.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.0 (-17.0) | 156.4 (+11.6) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 18-0 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#35) | 6.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#47) | 2.96 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#46) | 3.27 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#47) | 0.588 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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