Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -440 MUR +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -7.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -8.1 (+5.9) | 140.9 (+23.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.4 (+5.6) | 153.3 (+10.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -9.2 (+4.8) | 141.7 (+22.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.1 (+4.9) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#74) | 4.0 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#72) | 0.57 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#74) | 0.55 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#60) | 0.532 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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