Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -290 UIC +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -7.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -6.9 (+11.1) | 146.1 (+17.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -8.6 (+9.4) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -7.8 (+10.2) | 145.2 (+18.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -8.4 (+9.6) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#67) | 4.4 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#55) | 0.18 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#63) | 0.37 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#70) | 0.517 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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