Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -250 JOES +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -7.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -7.2 (-12.2) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -6.3 (-11.3) | 137.7 (-4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -6.8 (-11.8) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -6.9 (-11.9) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#89) | 2.3 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#77) | 0.92 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#76) | 1.00 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#93) | 0.542 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.