We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Moby Arena · March 19, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money CSU -250 / JOES +205
Model Predictions
Spread Total CSU win
Actual JOES +5 133 Lost
Massey CSU -7.4 (-12.4)
Massey Totals 141.8 (-8.8)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML CSU -7.2 (-12.2) 140.0 (-7.0) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML CSU -6.3 (-11.3) 137.7 (-4.7) 72%
Baseline ML CSU -6.8 (-11.8) 138.1 (-5.1) 69%
Baseline Plus ML CSU -6.9 (-11.9) 140.4 (-7.4) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CSU JOES
Overall 21-13 24-12
Conference 11-9 13-5
Home 12-6 13-3
Away 6-5 8-8
Neutral 3-2 3-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.8 71.9
Avg Pts Against 71.6 70.7
Massey 6.6 (#89) 2.3 (#130)
Bradley-Terry 1.25 (#77) 0.92 (#95)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.64 (#76) 1.00 (#104)
RPI 0.536 (#93) 0.542 (#80)
Shooting & Four Factors CSU JOES
FG% 48.4% 42.3%
3PT% 39.1% 30.8%
REB / G 31.9 37.7
OREB / G 8.7 11.2
AST / TO 1.31 1.32
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.0% 49.3%
TOV% 18.6% 16.9%
ORB% 30.0% 31.4%
FT Rate 30.5% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 47.6%
Opp TOV% 15.3% 15.2%
DRB% 71.0% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 18.1%

Game Analysis

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