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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–2 on winners spread MAE 10.0 16 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Pennsylvania @ Illinois +21.2 150.5 90% 70–105 ✓
Saint Louis @ Georgia +3.9 166.4 61% 102–77 ✗
Idaho @ Houston +20.2 135.0 90% 47–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Gonzaga +21.7 151.7 91% 64–73 ✓
Santa Clara @ Kentucky +1.5 152.4 56% 84–89 ✓
Akron @ Texas Tech +9.8 150.3 76% 71–91 ✓
Long Island University @ Arizona +27.9 145.8 90% 58–92 ✓
Wright State @ Virginia +17.5 147.9 89% 73–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Iowa State +24.9 143.7 90% 74–108 ✓
Hofstra @ Alabama +12.3 158.3 83% 70–90 ✓
Utah State @ Villanova +0.2 143.8 48% 86–76 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Tennessee +9.5 146.8 81% 56–78 ✓
Iowa @ Clemson -2.9 129.7 35% 67–61 ✓
Northern Iowa @ St. John's +10.8 132.3 83% 53–79 ✓
UCF @ UCLA +3.3 147.2 66% 71–75 ✓
Queens University @ Purdue +25.7 154.8 90% 71–104 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.