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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–4 on winners
spread MAE 6.0
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.0 | 142.7 | 72% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 129.1 | 78% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 141.6 | 83% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 151.6 | 48% | 86–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 152.2 | 82% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 143.0 | 79% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 141.2 | 45% | 73–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 142.8 | 66% | 89–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 147.9 | 82% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.1 | 148.2 | 89% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.2 | 128.3 | 90% | 40–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.6 | 147.1 | 89% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 133.7 | 71% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 142.3 | 68% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 150.2 | 79% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.6 | 136.0 | 90% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 146.4 | 62% | 79–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 142.6 | 80% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 134.6 | 56% | 67–57 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.