← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah State
@
UCLA
|
+3.9 | 139.1 | 68% | 47–72 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
St. John's
|
+20.6 | 147.9 | 90% | 53–83 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Michigan
|
+3.4 | 138.7 | 64% | 65–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Texas Tech
|
+16.0 | 146.5 | 88% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Mississippi State
|
-0.9 | 146.0 | 43% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Alabama
|
+18.9 | 163.9 | 90% | 81–90 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Iowa State
|
+14.6 | 144.7 | 86% | 55–82 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Memphis
|
+0.2 | 143.3 | 48% | 78–70 | ✗ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Duke
|
+32.0 | 137.6 | 90% | 49–93 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Saint Mary's
|
+4.0 | 130.4 | 67% | 56–59 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+0.1 | 153.7 | 52% | 64–71 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Maryland
|
+15.7 | 148.8 | 87% | 49–81 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Florida
|
+23.4 | 152.4 | 90% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Kentucky
|
+13.4 | 149.6 | 84% | 57–76 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Marquette
|
+2.0 | 150.9 | 54% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Arizona
|
+14.9 | 163.5 | 85% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.