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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-7.2 | 142.8 | 18% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 133.4 | 62% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 137.9 | 74% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 147.5 | 58% | 82–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.1 | 131.1 | 17% | 66–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 147.2 | 71% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 157.8 | 76% | 65–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 141.8 | 29% | 74–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 130.9 | 62% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 147.7 | 41% | 74–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.0 | 134.2 | 90% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 126.9 | 66% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 149.6 | 62% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-17.1 | 128.2 | 11% | 63–42 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 152.9 | 35% | 82–98 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 136.6 | 56% | 75–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 142.9 | 44% | 82–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 154.1 | 61% | 75–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 137.2 | 32% | 66–41 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.