Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–8 on winners spread MAE 8.0 20 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
New Mexico @ Fresno State -10.6 159.8 17% 103–89 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming -3.9 137.0 36% 67–58 ✓
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana +3.6 143.6 64% 70–68 ✗
Utah State @ Nevada +0.6 142.6 51% 69–64 ✗
Miami @ Boston College -0.1 146.8 56% 68–78 ✗
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -3.2 141.2 34% 77–61 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky -0.8 143.9 53% 68–69 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +1.5 134.6 53% 68–66 ✗
VMI @ East Tennessee State +12.2 144.1 85% 69–84 ✓
Howard @ Yale +14.1 148.4 88% 65–93 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -14.0 137.3 15% 90–61 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -4.1 148.1 32% 81–68 ✓
California @ Pittsburgh +18.8 156.4 90% 74–86 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +8.2 140.5 79% 68–53 ✗
Rice @ Tulsa -3.5 141.0 42% 70–64 ✓
Drake @ UIC -5.1 130.5 34% 70–74 ✗
Chattanooga @ Mercer +0.6 152.5 56% 94–99 ✓
Stanford @ Clemson +9.2 144.7 78% 71–85 ✓
North Carolina @ Louisville +2.9 161.4 67% 70–83 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +2.5 144.1 56% 73–65 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.