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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.4
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradley
@
Indiana State
|
-4.3 | 155.2 | 31% | 90–89 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Samford
|
+19.4 | 152.0 | 90% | 56–86 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Missouri State
|
+2.2 | 145.9 | 65% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Northern Iowa
|
+8.5 | 155.2 | 81% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Charleston Southern
|
+0.1 | 148.3 | 60% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
+0.7 | 144.3 | 51% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
North Florida
|
+6.0 | 148.2 | 70% | 97–89 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Winthrop
|
+11.6 | 157.8 | 87% | 76–95 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Holy Cross
|
+3.4 | 137.5 | 65% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Troy
@
App State
|
-2.6 | 130.3 | 34% | 69–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.