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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charleston
@
Alabama
|
+13.9 | 177.3 | 90% | 96–109 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Houston
|
+22.1 | 128.7 | 98% | 46–86 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Wisconsin
|
+5.4 | 152.6 | 69% | 72–61 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Utah State
|
-1.6 | 157.3 | 44% | 72–88 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.8 | 132.9 | 70% | 75–66 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Seton Hall
|
+3.0 | 128.6 | 61% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Arizona
|
+8.3 | 154.9 | 77% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-10.9 | 154.2 | 16% | 86–85 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.0 | 140.9 | 71% | 57–74 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Chicago State
|
-10.6 | 135.8 | 17% | 75–77 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Kansas
|
-1.8 | 153.4 | 43% | 89–68 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Norfolk State
|
+10.0 | 141.2 | 82% | 66–81 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
North Carolina
|
+2.7 | 142.1 | 60% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Delaware State
|
-11.7 | 137.3 | 14% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Iowa State
|
+7.6 | 131.6 | 76% | 56–67 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Ohio State
|
+3.9 | 145.7 | 64% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
NC State
|
+6.5 | 150.3 | 72% | 73–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.