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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.5 | 144.2 | 69% | 58–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 150.3 | 81% | 63–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 150.1 | 74% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 163.2 | 53% | 49–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 152.5 | 60% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 148.3 | 27% | 82–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 158.6 | 77% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 157.1 | 82% | 67–106 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 155.0 | 45% | 82–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 150.6 | 82% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 153.1 | 79% | 55–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 151.9 | 40% | 63–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 152.3 | 65% | 72–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 169.0 | 76% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 138.1 | 57% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 140.8 | 83% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.