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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama A&M
@
Austin Peay
|
+10.8 | 145.6 | 84% | 81–71 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Princeton
|
+4.1 | 141.7 | 65% | 84–77 | ✗ |
App State
@
Wake Forest
|
+8.7 | 146.8 | 79% | 76–87 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.8 | 140.4 | 73% | 72–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Villanova
|
+7.4 | 128.6 | 75% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Boise State
|
-0.5 | 148.0 | 48% | 60–53 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Mississippi State
|
-2.2 | 132.8 | 42% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
BYU
|
+10.4 | 143.9 | 83% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Creighton
|
+12.6 | 142.6 | 87% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Arizona
|
+23.6 | 168.5 | 98% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
North Carolina
|
+23.2 | 132.1 | 98% | 62–90 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Illinois
|
+12.6 | 150.8 | 87% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
South Carolina
|
-0.0 | 137.4 | 50% | 87–73 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Dayton
|
+0.5 | 140.8 | 52% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Texas
|
+0.5 | 144.0 | 52% | 44–56 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Kentucky
|
+12.3 | 167.6 | 87% | 80–76 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Iowa State
|
+17.8 | 139.9 | 95% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Gonzaga
|
+6.0 | 149.6 | 71% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.