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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.2 | 139.8 | 58% | 73–63 | ✗ |
South Florida
@
UCF
|
+6.7 | 138.8 | 73% | 83–77 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Virginia Tech
|
+5.6 | 141.2 | 69% | 58–74 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Butler
|
+5.1 | 151.6 | 68% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Iowa
|
+4.4 | 158.4 | 66% | 82–91 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Virginia
|
-2.4 | 119.9 | 42% | 67–42 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Utah
|
+7.9 | 149.8 | 76% | 75–84 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Montana State
|
+4.2 | 137.0 | 65% | 88–81 | ✗ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Bowling Green
|
-1.7 | 149.3 | 44% | 77–75 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Tarleton State
|
+7.7 | 143.4 | 76% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Seton Hall
|
+5.3 | 144.7 | 68% | 72–75 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Indiana State
|
+6.3 | 154.5 | 72% | 92–101 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Bradley
|
+6.2 | 138.6 | 71% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.