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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–4 on winners spread MAE 8.4 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Coppin State @ UMBC	—	—	—	67–92	—
Stonehill @ Robert Morris	+9.2	133.1	87%	51–63	✓
South Carolina State @ Jacksonville	—	—	—	62–71	—
Bryant @ Buffalo	—	—	—	87–64	—
Nicholls @ Northern Kentucky	+3.5	139.3	49%	61–59	✗
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State	+9.9	153.6	82%	73–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri	—	—	—	39–111	—
Morehead State @ Chattanooga	+10.0	131.5	81%	62–76	✓
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State	—	—	—	78–85	—
Northern Colorado @ South Dakota State	—	—	—	78–69	—
Grand Canyon @ Arizona State	+3.5	148.6	69%	76–87	✓
LSU @ Kansas State	+3.1	144.5	70%	76–65	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico State	—	—	—	82–83	—
Seattle U @ Cal Poly	+2.8	146.4	61%	71–75	✓
Omaha @ UNLV	+3.8	148.6	80%	69–80	✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific	—	—	—	60–57	—
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Charleston Southern	—	—	—	86–76	—
Tennessee Tech @ VMI	—	—	—	72–71	—
New Orleans @ Stonehill	+3.7	138.7	51%	54–80	✓
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart	—	—	—	82–75	—
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Michigan	+2.6	138.1	48%	79–60	✗
William & Mary @ Winthrop	+8.4	148.7	82%	85–86	✓
Virginia @ Villanova	+0.9	131.2	49%	70–60	✗
Florida @ Florida State	-1.9	147.0	29%	87–74	✓
TCU @ Michigan	+6.1	143.9	79%	64–76	✓
Monmouth @ Rutgers	+16.3	145.8	88%	81–98	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.