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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–6 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama A&M
@
Austin Peay
|
+8.9 | 143.4 | 79% | 81–71 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Princeton
|
+4.6 | 139.0 | 65% | 84–77 | ✗ |
App State
@
Wake Forest
|
+8.3 | 147.9 | 76% | 76–87 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.9 | 142.1 | 77% | 72–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Villanova
|
+6.5 | 130.0 | 60% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Boise State
|
-0.4 | 139.4 | 44% | 60–53 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Mississippi State
|
-1.6 | 131.0 | 48% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
BYU
|
+7.5 | 140.9 | 69% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Creighton
|
+10.1 | 140.2 | 80% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Arizona
|
+17.8 | 160.8 | 88% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
North Carolina
|
+18.1 | 131.1 | 89% | 62–90 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Illinois
|
+12.6 | 145.0 | 84% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
South Carolina
|
-1.1 | 134.8 | 38% | 87–73 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Dayton
|
-0.0 | 138.3 | 47% | 60–63 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Texas
|
+1.1 | 137.5 | 59% | 44–56 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Kentucky
|
+10.5 | 160.1 | 78% | 80–76 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Iowa State
|
+13.8 | 134.3 | 87% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Gonzaga
|
+8.3 | 143.4 | 75% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.