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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prairie View A&M
@
Southern
|
+3.4 | 159.6 | 63% | 89–85 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Rutgers
|
-5.5 | 140.5 | 31% | 85–88 | ✗ |
Yale
@
Brown
|
-9.3 | 143.2 | 20% | 70–53 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
+1.5 | 144.0 | 59% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Harvard
|
+4.8 | 142.0 | 70% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Princeton
|
+0.4 | 135.7 | 52% | 76–78 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Charleston
|
-1.0 | 148.9 | 45% | 79–88 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
SE Louisiana
|
-0.0 | 134.2 | 50% | 52–60 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Grambling
|
+11.4 | 144.2 | 87% | 67–84 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+0.6 | 138.6 | 51% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+10.3 | 145.0 | 84% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
McNeese
|
+6.9 | 140.2 | 74% | 64–66 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-9.4 | 137.0 | 16% | 71–51 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Houston Christian
|
-2.7 | 129.7 | 34% | 81–65 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
New Orleans
|
+7.8 | 147.5 | 80% | 73–83 | ✓ |
USC
@
Michigan State
|
+9.3 | 150.6 | 80% | 51–80 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Ohio
|
+2.6 | 148.3 | 64% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.